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GEOFFREY HARCOURT：他认为他正在撰写的这部著作将使我们考虑经济体系的方式发生革命性的变化。它还将告诉我们如何让经济运行得更好。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY： It was written against the background of not only the collapse of the world economy； but the potential collapse of democratic government。 Hitler became chancellor of Germany in 1933。 Democracy seemed to be losing ground； and with democracy； the system of liberty。 So Keynes had to produce an answer to the Great Depression； or democracy would be swamped by totalitarianism。 ROBERT SKIDELSKY：这部著作的写作背景不仅是世界经济的崩溃，还有潜在的民主政府垮台的危机。1933年希特勒成为德国总理。民主似乎正在退却；与民主一样的还有自由体制。因此凯恩斯必须为大萧条找到一个答案，否则民主就会被极权主义吞没。
Chapter 5： Global Depression ＇5：26＇
第五章：全球性的萧条
Onscreen title： Washington； ； 1933
字幕标题：华盛顿，哥伦比亚特区，1933年
NARRATOR： The new American president； Franklin Delano Roosevelt； was staring economic disaster in the face。 His wife； Eleanor； described Inauguration Day as "；very solemn； and a little terrifying。"；
旁白：新的美国总统－Franklin Delano Roosevelt－面对这场经济灾难表现出色。他的夫人－Eleanor－形容就职典礼日“非常庄严，有点令人生畏”。
FRANKLIN DELANO ROOSEVELT； ： This great nation will endure as it has endured； will revive and will prosper。 I shall ask the Congress for the one remaining instrument to meet the crisis： broad executive power。
罗斯福，美国总统：我们伟大的国家将象过去一样顽强坚持下去，将会实现复兴和繁荣。我将要求国会给予我广泛的行政权利，这是剩下来的能够对付危机的手段。
NARRATOR： Roosevelt's voice of confidence rallied the nation。
旁白：罗斯福自信的声音令整个国家为之振奋。
He then embarked on a whirlwind program of reform。
然后他着手开始进行旋风式的改革计划。
DANIEL YERGIN： For Roosevelt and the New Deal； it was a war。 They were at war with the Great Depression； and they responded with frenetic activity； relief programs for the unemployed； for the hungry； programs to get people back to work。 They built dams and highways and national parks。 At the same time they instituted a program of regulating capitalism in a way that had never been done before； in order to protect people from what they saw as the recklessness of the unfettered market。
丹尼尔。尤金：对罗斯福和他的新政来说，这是一场战争。他们在和大萧条作战，以狂烈的行动作为回应－救济失业者和挨饿者，让人们重新回到工作岗位上。他们修建水坝、公路和国家公园。同时，他们制定了一项计划，该计划将以前所未有的方式对资本主义进行调控，以保护人们免受自由市场无序发展所带来的伤害。
NARRATOR： Privately； Roosevelt feared the market system had failed； so he created an entire alphabet of new agencies to regulate banks； the stock market； capitalism itself。 New headquarters built for the Interstate merce mission celebrated government regulation； which reined in market forces and curbed capitalism。 Under the New Deal； industry became subject to a host of new rules and regulations。
旁白：私下里，罗斯福对市场体体制的失败感到恐惧，因此他创立了一整套新机构来管理银行、股票市场和资本主义制度本身。为国内运输管理委员会修建的新总部建成，庆祝方式就是发布政府规章。新政实施后，企业要受到一系列新规则和规章制度的约束。
DANIEL YERGIN： And the airline industry was a very good example of that。 You had people go into this business； be very petitive； they'd go bankrupt。 New people would e in； they would go bankrupt。 It was very unstable； so the New Deal stepped in and said； "；We're going to stabilize this industry。 We're going to set the prices that you can charge for tickets。 We're going to tell you what routes you can fly。"； And with that system they eliminated these very vicious cycles of boom and bust in the aviation industry； and in a sense； that was what they were aiming to do throughout the American economy。
丹尼尔。尤金：航空业是一个很好的例子。企业进入这个行业，然后激烈竞争，然后破产；新的企业再进来，然后又破产；整个行业非常不稳定。因此新政插手这个行业，“我们要稳定这个行业，设定机票价格，规定各公司能够经营的航线。”通过这种方法，他们消除了航空业中繁荣－破产的恶性循环。在某种意义上，这也是他们对整个美国经济的目标。
Onscreen title： Cambridge University； 1936
字幕标题：剑桥大学，1936年
NARRATOR： In 1936 John Maynard Keynes finally published his General Theory； a brilliant analysis of how to fight the Depression。 By showing governments that it was possible to manage their economies； Keynes made himself the most influential economist of the age。
旁白：1936年，凯恩斯的《通论》终于出版了，这本书对如何与萧条作斗争进行了才华横溢的分析。凯恩斯告诉各国政府对经济进行管理是可能的，这使他成为那个时代最有影响的经济学家。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY： Keynes's solution to unemployment was for the government to spend the money to restore and maintain full employment。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY：凯恩斯解决失业问题的方案是扩大政府开支以恢复和保持充分就业。
NARRATOR： Governments； said Keynes； should spend against the wind。 In good times they should reduce their spending and build surpluses； in bad times； like the Great Depression； they should step up spending； run deficits； and put purchasing power into the hands of working people。
旁白：凯恩斯认为政府开支应该逆风而行。繁荣时期政府应该削减支出和进行储备；困难时期，比如大萧条时期，政府应该逐步增加支出，实行赤字财政，让劳动者有购买力。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY： He gave people hope that unemployment could be cured without concentration camps。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY：他给了人们希望－失业问题是可以克服的。
NARRATOR： Harvard University became an intellectual bridgehead for Keynes in America。 John Kenneth Galbraith was one of Keynes's leading apostles。
旁白：哈佛大学成为凯恩斯在美国的学术桥头堡。John Kenneth Galbraith是他最主要的追随者。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH； Professor Emeritus； Harvard University： I've said many times I think had something； maybe quite a bit； to do with bringing Keynes across the Atlantic。 I came back to find a whole group of people here who had also read The General Theory； and this was a breath of hope and optimism。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH，哈佛大学荣誉退休教授：我曾多次说过我认为把凯恩斯主义带到大西洋彼岸这件事与我有很大的关系。我回来后发现这儿有许许多多人已经看过《通论》，这是充满希望和乐观主义的。
NARRATOR： Keynes's ideas trickled down from Harvard to Washington； turning the federal government's conventional economic policies upside down。
旁白：凯恩斯的思想从哈佛传到华盛顿，完全改变了联邦政府传统的经济政策。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH： You resisted conservative finance； borrowed money； and hired people across the country； rescuing them from unemployment。 That was the basic essential …… and that you didn't worry about accumulating debt； or； more precisely； you worried about it； but did it anyway。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH：你反对保守的财政政策，借钱来雇佣全国各地的人工作，使他们不致失业。这是基本要点，而你不担心负债的问题，或者更确切地说，你担心负债问题，但无论如何你还是要这样做。
NARRATOR： Keynes's ideas began to gain ground。
讲述者：凯恩斯的思想开始普及。
Chapter 6： Worldwide War ＇7：00＇
第六章：世界大战
Onscreen title： World War II； 1941
字幕标题：第二次世界大战，1941年
NARRATOR： It took a world war for Keynesianism to bee government policy。 As the ； high unemployment ended； and the Depression disappeared。
旁白：经过世界大战，凯恩斯理论变成了政府政策。随着美国政府大举借债并将资金用于备战，高失业率的状况得到改观，大萧条也结束了。
NEWSREEL NARRATOR： 。。。 men and women to make the uniforms； machinists to make the guns and ammunition； auto workers to produce the jeeps and trucks； to build the ships and tanks； civilian soldiers to turn out the fighters； the bombers。
新闻片旁白：……男人和女人做制服；机械师造枪炮弹药；汽车工人生产吉普和卡车，建造舰船和坦克。
NARRATOR： In charge of wartime wage and price controls； John Kenneth Galbraith saw the economy rebound。
旁白：负责战时工资和价格控制的John Kenneth Galbraith看到了经济的反弹。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH： One could not have had a better demonstration of the Keynesian ideas； and I think it's fair to say that as a young Keynesian in Washington； in touch with the other Keynesians there； we all saw that very clearly at the time。
JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH：这是凯恩斯理论的最好实证。我想可以很公正地说，作为当时在华盛顿的年轻凯恩斯主义者－与那里的其他凯恩斯主义者也有联系，我们那时都清楚地看到了这一实证。
NARRATOR： In a radio broadcast； Keynes expressed his hope that what worked in war would work in peace。
旁白：凯恩斯在无线电广播中表达了他的希望：战时起作用的，在和平时期也起作用。
JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES： If expenditure on armaments really does cure unemployment； a grand experiment has begun。 Good may e out of evil。 We may learn a trick or two which will e in useful when the day of peace es。
凯恩斯：如果军备支出确实克服了失业问题，那么一个更重大的试验开始了。好事可能来自于邪恶。我们可以从中学到一或两个窍门，这在和平时期迟早用的上。
Onscreen title： London； 1944
字幕标题：伦敦，1944年
NARRATOR： Now teaching at the London School of Economics； Hayek feared that Keynes's brave new world was a big step in the wrong direction。 He attacked the growing consensus by writing The Road to Serfdom。 Sarcastically dedicated to "；socialists of all parties；"； it was a popular success。 There was even a cartoon version of it。
旁白：正在伦敦经济学院教学的哈耶克担心凯恩斯勇敢的新世界是朝着错误方向迈出的一大步。他写了《通往奴役之路》，向主流意见发起了攻击。它对“各政党中的社会主义者”进行讽刺，受到了欢迎。甚至还出现了关于它的漫画。
Its message was simple and direct： Too much government planning means too much government power； and too much government power over the economy destroys freedom and makes men slaves。 For Hayek； central planning was the first step to a totalitarian state。
它的意思很简单也很直接：太多政府计划意味着太多政府权力；政府对经济的权力太大损害自由，而且使人们成为奴隶。在哈耶克看来，中央计划是成为极权主义国家的第一步。
GEOFFREY HARCOURT： Well； Hayek thought that since freedom was an absolute； you must let a petitive system just work itself out。 And if at times that meant there was considerable unemployment； well； that's what you had to put up with
GEOFFREY HARCOURT：哈耶克认为既然自由是绝对的，那么你必须让竞争体系完全依靠自身解决问题。如果有时候这意味着相当多的失业，那也是你所必须忍受的。
ROBERT SKIDELSKY： Hayek always rejected macroeconomics。 He rejected any government intervention during the Great Depression itself； whereas Keynes was an activist。 He said in the long run we're all dead； and in the long run if we allow things to go on without remedy； we get lots of Hitlers； lots of wars； and lots of Stalins。 And who was right？
ROBERT SKIDELSKY：哈耶克一直抵制宏观经济学。大萧条时期他反对任何政府干预，而凯恩斯则是一个激进分子。他说长期来看我们都会死亡，长期来看如果我们允许事情自由发展，就会产生许多希特勒，许多战争和许多斯大林。那么谁是正确的？
NARRATOR： Most people would have agreed with Keynes when he wrote this to Hayek。
旁白：在凯恩斯写这些给哈耶克的时候多数人同意凯恩斯的观点。
JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES： What we want is not no planning； or even less planning。 We almost certainly want more。
凯恩斯：我们想要的不是没有计划，甚至也不是较少的计划。我们几乎肯定想要更多的计划。
NARRATOR： In the battle of ideas； Hayek was on the losing side。
旁白：在这场思想战争中，哈耶克处于下风。
FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK： I had a fairly good reputation as an economic theorist in 1944 when I published The Road to Serfdom； and it was treated even by the academic munity very largely as a malicious effort by a reactionary to destroy high ideals。
哈耶克：1944年出版《通往奴役之路》（The Road to Serfdom）时，作为经济理论家我的声望相当高。《通往奴役之路》（The Road to Serfdom）甚至被一个学术团体在很大程度上作为对崇高理想的恶毒攻击。
Onscreen title： New Hampshire； 1944
字幕标题：新罕布什尔州，1944年
NARRATOR： With the world at war； Keynes traveled to Bretton Woods and a grand resort hotel。 Here； delegates gathered from all over the world to organize the postwar economy。
旁白：世界大战还在进行。凯恩斯来到布雷顿森林，来自世界各地的代表正聚集在这里商讨重建战后经济。
The Bretton Woods Conference created the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund。 They were designed to bring stability to the world economy and prevent the unemployment and the depression of 1930s。
布雷顿森林会议建立了世界银行和国际货币基金组织，它们被预定用于稳定世界经济，防止出现三十年代那样的高失业和大萧条。
Keynes's idealism and humanity were an inspiration。
凯恩斯的理想主义和博爱是一个启示。
JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES： There has never been such a far…reaching proposal on so great a scale to provide employment in the present and increase productivity in the future。 And I doubt if the world understands how big a thing we are bringing to birth。
凯恩斯：这个具有深远意义的提议前所未有，它在如此大的范围内提供当前的就业机会并在未来提高生产率。我怀疑世界是否明白我们正在做一件多么重要的事情。
NARRATOR： Keynes did not have long to live。 Ill and overworked； his health gave way； but his reputation and influence outlived him。
旁白：凯恩斯不久就逝世了，疾病和过度劳累毁掉了他的健康。但是他的声望和影响长存。
FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK： When Keynes died； Keynes and I were the best known economis